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Investor concern is understandable, since half or more of the earnings of Japan’s Big Three come from North America. Moreover, the Japanese market, the world’s third-largest, was at a 25-year low in 2007 (BusinessWeek.com, 11/1/07). One bright spot, though, comes from rapid growth in the world’s fast-growing emerging auto markets, especially China. That developing-economy demand, say hopeful auto execs in Japan, will be more than enough to enable Toyota, Nissan, and Honda to meet earnings projections. %26quot;This year, Japanese carmakers will enter a new growth phase, with demand from emerging markets offsetting sluggish demand in the U.S. and Japan,%26quot; says Yasuhiro Matsumoto, an analyst at Shinsei Securities in Tokyo.
Undoubtedly, 2007 was a strong year for the Japanese marquees in China, which overtook Japan in 2006 to become the world’s second-largest car market behind the U.S. While full-year results are still to be published, CSM Worldwide, an automotive consulting company, estimates that Japanese passenger-car sales in China increased by 24%, to more than 1.5 million vehicles%26mdash;more than twice the total three years ago.
Toyota’s Growth SpurtPlenty of other automakers are also counting on growth from China, of course. Market leaders Volkswagen and General Motors (GM) also had strong sales. Volkswagen, which has two joint ventures with Chinese manufacturers, announced sales there of 910,000, a rise of 28%, on Jan. 10. A day earlier, GM said its sales in China increased 19%, to 1.03 million (although analysts point out that includes almost 550,000 vehicles built by SAIC-GM-Wuling, in which GM holds only a minority 34% stake). And local Chinese brands such as Geely and Chery are on the rise, too (BusinessWeek.com, 10/24/07).
Still, the Japanese are well-positioned to move toward the front of the pack. Spearheaded by Toyota, Japan’s automakers are likely to keep up pressure in the months and years ahead. Ashvin Chotai, an independent automotive consultant and former director of Asian automotive industry research at Global Insight, reckons market share for Japan’s automakers will rise to 25% by 2012, from 14% last year. %26quot;There’s a lot of playing catch-up, but they’re really building a head of steam,%26quot; says Chotai.
